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I’m Dan, a freelance small business journalist and event/podcast host with 20+ years of experience. If you’re looking for small business-focused content or an engaging event host, I’d love to help. Get in touch.
Autumn Budget to take place on 26 November: What could be in it for small businesses?
Rachel Reeves has announced that the government’s Autumn Budget will be announced on Wednesday 26 November.
The chancellor is under increasing pressure to boost economic growth and balance the public finances.
Reeves has set herself fiscal rules but the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said the government is on track to miss its ‘stability rule’ for 2029-30 by £41.2bn. “Substantial adjustments in the Autumn Budget will be needed if the chancellor is to remain compliant with her fiscal rules,” it claimed.
Labour has repeated its pledge to not increase taxes on “working people” by raising income tax, national insurance or VAT, which means the chancellor will need to look elsewhere to raise revenue.
What could be in the Budget that directly impacts small businesses? Here are some predictions.
Change to VAT threshold
There have been various press reports that Reeves may change the VAT threshold, which is currently £90,000.
According to the Telegraph, officials have suggested raising the threshold as a “growth measure”.
However, discussions are also ongoing, the newspaper said, about cutting the rate. Pensions minister Torsten Bell, who is involved in the Budget plans, has called for it be reduced to £30,000 because the threshold is “expensive and acts as a disincentive for small firms to grow”.
Cutting the rate would mean thousands more businesses and self-employed individuals would have to register for VAT.
Self-employment group IPSE, which is one of several groups to call for the threshold to be raised, said a cut would be “a breach of [Labour’s] commitment [to not raise VAT] and a breach of faith – to claim that dragging people into paying a new tax is not the same as putting their taxes up”.
I’m currently running a LinkedIn poll on whether the VAT threshold should be increased or cut. At the time of writing, more than 75% say it should be raised.
An Official for Budget Responsibility report in 2023 said the number of businesess capping their turnover to avoid having to register for VAT had almost doubled from 23,000 to 44,000.
Business rates
The government has previously announced its intention to reform the business rates system. At the 2024 autumn Budget, Reeves said permanently lower business rates for retail, hospitality and leisure properties with a rateable value under £500,000 will be introduced from 2026-27 “to level the playing field for the high street”. It is expected these rates will be announced on 26 November.
Following the government’s discussion paper on business rates published last October, there is also likely to be more detail on business rates reform in November’s Budget.
Business groups have been very vocal in their demands for business rates reform, amid figures showing eight pubs a week closed down in England and Wales during the first half of the year amid rising tax, labour and running costs.
Income tax threshold freeze
Several experts have predicted that the chancellor might extend the freeze on personal and higher-rate income tax thresholds. They are currently set until 2028-29 before rising with inflation. However, to raise more revenue, she could extend the freeze to 2030.
In October, I’ll be writing a more detailed piece on small business predictions for the Autumn Budget for my client TaxAssist Accountants. Keep an eye on this page.
I’m Dan, a freelance small business journalist and event/podcast host with 20+ years of experience. If you’re looking for small business-focused content or an engaging event host, I’d love to help. Get in touch.
Dan Martin 
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